Black Friday 2026 falls on November 27, and the online numbers are expected to be big. So are the scams. This guide gives you the verified forecast figures, shows what a realistic discount looks like, and walks through a practical checklist for spotting fake stores, fake ads and risky payment choices, including a few rules for using AI shopping assistants.
Quick Answer
Adobe forecasts that US online holiday spending (November 1 to December 31, 2026) will reach a record $275.1 billion, up 6.7 percent, with Black Friday online sales of about $12.9 billion and discounts peaking at around 30 percent off list prices. To shop safely, buy from sites you can verify, pay with a credit card or another method with strong dispute rights, be suspicious of discounts far deeper than the typical range, and never click payment links from unexpected messages. These are forecasts, not results.
Table of Contents
- The 2026 forecast
- What a realistic discount looks like
- Shopping with AI assistants
- A smart shopping plan
- The scams to expect
- Scam-proof checklist
- Choosing how to pay
- If you think you were scammed
- Common mistakes
- FAQ
- Sources
The 2026 Forecast
These figures come from Adobe Analytics, which tracks US online transactions. They were published in a forecast in late September 2026 and are projections that may differ from actual results.
| Period | Forecast online spend | Growth vs last year |
|---|---|---|
| Full season (Nov 1 to Dec 31) | $275.1 billion | +6.7% |
| Thanksgiving Day (Nov 26) | $6.9 billion | +8.5% |
| Black Friday (Nov 27) | $12.9 billion | +9.2% |
| Cyber Monday (Nov 30) | $15.1 billion | +6.2% |
| Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) | $47.5 billion | +7.4% |
| Buy now, pay later (Nov to Dec) | $21.3 billion | +6.6% |
Adobe also expects mobile to account for 57.4 percent of online spend across the season, up from 56.4 percent in 2025. Its forecast draws on over one trillion visits to US retail sites, and on a July 2026 survey of 5,000 consumers.
What a Realistic Discount Looks Like
Adobe's projected peak discounts, against list price, give you a yardstick:
| Category | Peak discount (forecast) |
|---|---|
| Electronics | 30% |
| Toys | 29% |
| TVs, computers, apparel | 23% each |
| Sporting goods | 19% |
| Appliances, furniture | 18% each |
By timing, Adobe expects discounts of up to about 14 percent in early November, around 21 percent just before Thanksgiving, up to 30 percent across Cyber Week, then 10 to 15 percent in December. It says Cyber Monday should have the deepest deals on electronics and computers, Black Friday on TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture, and Thanksgiving on sporting goods.
How to use this: these are averages across many products, so individual items can be cheaper. But when an unknown website advertises a new, popular product at 70 or 80 percent off, it is far outside the typical range and deserves suspicion.
Shopping with AI Assistants
Adobe projects that traffic to US retail sites coming from AI tools will rise 130 percent year over year this season. In a survey that Adobe cited, 77 percent of respondents who used AI for online shopping said they felt more confident in their purchase, and 69 percent said they were less likely to return items. That survey comes from the vendor and covers people who already use AI to shop, so treat it as a signal, not proof.
AI can help you compare specs and build a shortlist. It can also give you a link that leads to a fake store, state a price that is out of date, or recommend a product based on weak data. Rules for using it:
- Use AI for research, not for the final click. Go to the retailer's own website or app yourself.
- Check the price on the store page. Prices and stock change quickly.
- Verify the seller. If the assistant suggests an unfamiliar shop, apply the checklist below.
- Do not give an AI tool your card or login details unless you fully understand what it can do on your behalf and you control approvals. For more on agents that can act for you, see our guide to AI agents vs AI chatbots.
A Smart Shopping Plan
- Make a list and a budget now. Impulse buying is the real enemy.
- Track prices from early November. Note the price today so you can see if a "deal" is real.
- Prioritize categories where Black Friday is strongest. Based on Adobe's forecast: TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture. For electronics and computers, Cyber Monday may be better.
- Check return policies and deadlines. Holiday purchases often have extended windows, but terms vary.
- Use official apps and saved sites. Do not search for the brand name and click the first ad.
- Set price alerts rather than refreshing pages.
- Review statements afterward for unexpected charges.
The Scams to Expect
Consumer groups have warned for several seasons about the same patterns. A November 2025 report from a local Better Business Bureau office (WKBW) described these tactics, and they are likely to return:
- Fake stores made to look real. AI-built websites with stolen logos, professional product photos, deep discounts on famous brands and dozens of five-star reviews, some duplicated.
- Fake social media shops and ads. Polished pages created recently, with products that never arrive and tracking numbers that do not work.
- Polished phishing messages. A Netcraft executive quoted in the same report said that, because AI makes writing fluent, an email that is too perfectly written can now be a warning sign.
- Delivery and "payment failed" texts that push you to a link to fix an order you may not have placed.
- Fake customer-support numbers in search results or ads.
I did not find reliable 2026 loss statistics for these scams, so I am not quoting any. If you want numbers, check the latest reports from the FTC, your national consumer agency or the BBB.
Scam-Proof Checklist
- Check how long the site and its social pages have existed. A brand-new store with huge discounts is a red flag.
- Look for a real address, phone number and clear returns policy. Test that the contact details work.
- Read reviews on other sites. Watch for copy-pasted or identical reviews.
- Check the web address letter by letter. Look for extra words, swapped letters or odd endings.
- Do not click links in unexpected texts or emails. Open the retailer's app or type its address.
- Pause for five seconds before paying. Pressure and countdown timers are classic tactics.
- Never pay by bank transfer, gift cards or crypto to a store. These are hard or impossible to reverse.
- Turn on two-step sign-in or use passkeys for shopping accounts. See our guide on what passkeys are and how to switch.
- Look up customer support numbers on the official site, not through ads.
- If the deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
For a broader fraud guide that includes voice cloning and payment scams, read how to protect online payments from AI-powered scams.
Choosing How to Pay
| Method | Advantages | Watch-outs |
|---|---|---|
| Credit card | In many countries, including the US, credit cards come with stronger dispute rights than debit. Your own cash is not tied up while a dispute is open. | Rules vary by country and issuer. Do not overspend and carry a balance. |
| Debit card | Spending is limited to your balance. | Money leaves your account straight away, and recovery can be slower. |
| Digital wallet | Hides your card number from the seller. | The account itself must be secured. |
| Buy now, pay later | Spreads cost. | Missed payments can bring fees, and several small plans are easy to lose track of. Adobe forecasts $21.3 billion of BNPL spend this season, so read the terms. |
| Bank transfer, gift cards, crypto | None for shoppers. | Very hard to reverse. Avoid for online shopping. |
For a budgeting setup before you spend, see our guide to AI personal finance tools.
If You Think You Were Scammed
- Contact your bank or card issuer immediately and ask to dispute the charge or freeze the card.
- Change passwords on any account where you used the same login.
- Save evidence: screenshots, order emails, the web address and payment details.
- Report it to your national consumer or fraud agency and to the platform that carried the ad.
- Watch your statements for further charges.
Common Mistakes
- Buying from a link in an ad without checking the store.
- Using a debit card on unfamiliar sites.
- Believing "only 2 left" countdowns.
- Trusting a price just because an AI assistant quoted it.
- Ignoring the return window.
- Stacking BNPL plans without tracking due dates.
Expert Tips
- Do your price tracking early. A deal is only a deal compared with the price last month.
- Use one card for online shopping so unusual charges are easy to spot.
- Take a screenshot of the order confirmation and keep delivery emails until the item arrives.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is Black Friday 2026?
November 27, 2026, the day after US Thanksgiving. Cyber Monday is November 30.
How much will Americans spend online this holiday season?
Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion from November 1 to December 31, 2026, up 6.7 percent. It is a forecast, not a final figure.
How big are Black Friday discounts?
Adobe projects discounts peaking at about 30 percent across Cyber Week, with electronics at 30 percent and toys at 29 percent. Individual deals vary.
Is it safe to use AI to shop?
It can help with research, but verify the seller and the price yourself and complete payment on the retailer's own site or app.
Should I use a credit or debit card?
In many places, credit cards offer stronger dispute protection. Check the rules in your country and with your card issuer.
How can I tell if a shopping website is fake?
Check how old it is, whether contact details work, whether reviews look repeated, and whether the discounts are far deeper than normal.
Conclusion
This will likely be a record online season, and scammers know it. Use the forecast as a benchmark for what is realistic, keep AI tools in a research role, and make safe payment choices. A few minutes of checking beats a month of chasing a refund.
Run an online store or a deals site? See our sponsored posts page or contact us.
Sources
- Adobe: 2026 US holiday online sales forecast (September 2026)
- Retail Dive: holiday ecommerce forecast coverage (Sept 28, 2026)
- WKBW: fake AI shopping sites target Black Friday shoppers (Nov 25, 2025)
Adobe's figures are forecasts from a company that sells analytics services. The scam examples come from a 2025 local news report. Consumer-protection rules differ by country. This article is general information, not financial or legal advice.
